The Conspiracy of Doves: Towards a Theory of Persons
II.
Socialism
and the selfish gene: a tale of quiz shows, game
theory and natural selection
Part
of the ideological armoury deployed to defend the status quo is
the idea that socialism is impossible because human nature
is inherently selfish. Is it? Or does modern Darwinism tell
us something rather different? Lets take as an unlikely
starting point the following unlikely question, which by the end
of this chapter I hope to have at least partially answered.
What
do TV quiz shows like Deal or no Deal, Goldenballs,
Who wants to be a Millionaire and the
reality show Big Brother have in
common with one of the most important findings of modern biology
in the 21st Century?
One
of the advantages of being a socialist activist is that you
rarely have time to watch TV being out fighting for a
better society is not only a good thing in and of itself, it also
saves the brain from the sclerotic effect of todays
mind-numbing schedules of crass game shows, stagey docu-soaps,
and whatever the latest fly-on-the-wall,
lowest-common-denominator, piece of voyeurism happens to be.
However,
anyone who has done a degree in philosophy, economics or biology
would probably recognize one of the key contributions to
twentieth century thought at work in any one of the mass
entertainment programmes mentioned above that is, the
concept and practice of Game Theory.
After
all, these programme makers are very clever if not
necessarily very moral. Perhaps the very stuff that makes Deal
or no Deal or Millionaire exciting viewing for
millions; the calculations and trade offs; the element of risk
taking or knowing when to stop is something that strikes a chord
somewhere in our brains; in our inherent and complex human
nature.
In
Noel Edmonds Deal or no Deal, for instance,
contestants are asked to open boxes representing cash values from
pocket money up to one containing £250, 000. As boxes are
eliminated from the game, an off-screen banker will
offer contestants sums of money to settle and leave the game.
Contestants have to weigh up the odds of being better off
accepting the bankers offer or continuing on to win the big
prize, or of course, perhaps leave with nothing or next to
nothing.
In
Millionaire contestants not only have to answer questions;
they have to make a series of considered decisions about whether
it is in their rational self interest to proceed to a
further level of difficulty and perhaps lose money or win more,
or to settle for what they have. In Big Brother contestants
can form alliances, deceive their housemates and try to get
competitors nominated for eviction but they also have to
weigh up whether such behaviour may count against them both with
their fellow housemates and the viewing public. We shall leave
aside for the moment whether it can be in anybodys
rational self interest to seek such a shallow 15
minutes of fame.
| The Game Theory theme reaches
its purest form in the afternoon show Goldenballs, however.
Skipping over the complex preliminaries which are a bit
like Numberwang from Mitchell and Webb, the
programme ends with two contestants and a big pot of the
filthy lucre. Each contestant has a button they can push
representing their choice of what do with the money. |
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| Jasper Carrot presents Goldenballs, but the games roots lie in philosophy |
One
button means Share, the other Take Everything. The contestants
are allowed to speak with each other, truthfully or deceitfully,
and to ask questions to try and guess at each others
character or intention. At the end of the process, each
contestant must choose which button to push without
knowing the other contestants true decision. It works like
this: If both contestants press Share, they receive have of the
money each. If one presses Share, and other presses Take
Everything, the greedy one walks away with all of the money and
the co-operator wins nothing. If both press Take Everything, both
lose everything.
I
saw this gruesome ritual only once but immediately understood its
proletarian late afternoon circus entertainment value. More often
than not the contestants would end up in mutual destitution, or
one cynical, lying opportunist would walk away with all the cash
while the more trusting citizen of this mini-society would end up
with zilch. The similarity to a much studied phenomenon in this
online magazine (beginning with capital and ending in -ism) was
not entirely coincidental. Game Theory has often been seized upon
by pro-capitalist and neo-liberal economists and theoreticians to
justify capitalist market laissez faire economics as a natural
product of the operation of rational self interest.
Making
sense of selfishness?
As
someone whose background is in philosophy rather than economics,
what struck me about all of these programmes and the basic
versions of Game Theory they were employing could also be
understood as variants of one of the oldest thought
experiments in moral philosophy The Prisoners
Dilemma.
Prisoners
dilemma type games are applicable whenever there is a conflict
between co-operation (the common good) and self interest, and
they can have many different forms. In the original, two
prisoners are held in separate cells facing a 10-year sentence.
If one prisoner grasses on the other, the other will face the
full sentence and the defector will go free. If both stay silent
there is no evidence and both are free to go. If both grass on
each other, both will get 5 years.
To
understand the influence this thought experiment has had on both
economics and biology we have to leave our ethics and
perhaps our socialist values ands preconceptions at the front
door for the moment, to return to them later. What matters here
is what a bourgeois economist might call the rational
self-interest. Working it out logically, what is the best course
of action each prisoner can take for him- or herself? The problem
has to be understood mathematically.
Bearing
in mind that one prisoner has no idea what the other prisoner
will do, that his choice is made blind; he has a one in four
chance, if he stays silent, of going free and similar odds for
silence, of landing the ten year term. Likewise, he has a one in
four chance, if he grasses, of going free, but a one in two
chance of avoiding the ten year sentence, because if both
prisoners talk the sentence is only five years. On a purely
algorithmic basis then, selfishness (so we are told), will always
pay better odds.
It
is little wonder then, that capitalist economists for many years
have used such games theories to justify the predatory nature of
the capitalist system as inevitable. Altruism and co-operation
may be nice ideas, but, they tell us, since, like the eponymous
prisoner we can never rely on other human beings to keep up their
side of the agreement, we are compelled likewise, by rational
self interest, to always put ourselves first.
Such
ideas have also made the crossover into biology, particularly
evolutionary biology, and thence into culture and sociology. What
is Darwinian natural selection but the survival of the
fittest, a pitiless struggle of each organism against its
environment and its contemporaries for the right to reproduce?
(Incidentally, this was a term coined not by Darwin, but by
Herbert Spencer, a contemporary of the great evolutionist and one
of the first promoters of primitive eugenics).
Of
course, unlike the prisoners in the Dilemma game, genes are not
making conscious choices. Darwinian selection takes place because
of variation across populations of species in given environments
and over multi-generational time-scales. Natural selection is a
blind algorithmic process tending towards optimum fits to
specific eco-systems, food supplies and modes of reproduction.
Those individuals of a species which have heritable
characteristics which tend to enable them to survive long enough
to reproduce in a given environment will pass on those inherited
characteristics, while those individuals of a species lacking
those characteristics will tend to die out prior to mating.
Consequently, the favoured characteristic (better camouflage, a
better facility with language, a keener ability to smell blood
over large distances, etc.) will tend to increase in a given
population group over time, until that characteristic becomes a
defining characteristic of a species, or until a new species is
created whose genetic adaptations are so markedly different from
its parent species that it can no longer successfully mate with
it.
All
organisms are the way they are today because they all had
ancestors who successfully passed on their genes. It is a
scientific tautology that no-one reading this has ancestors who
died childless.
Marxists
accept this scientific view of constant creation and the
emergence of new species. Indeed, as pointed out elsewhere Marx
was a great admirer of Darwin and sent him a complimentary copy
of the first volume of Capital. But capitalist society tends to
interpret the findings of science in terms of its own dominant
ideology. For those with vested economic interests to propound in
culture, education and politics, both economic games theories,
imbued with the idea of rational self interest, and the notion of
the selfish gene seemed to be a welcome addition to the
ideological armoury of capitalism.
Of
course, they argued, as good liberals we could always try to
ameliorate the worst effects of human nature, but nevertheless
science had showed, had it not, that as human beings individually
we were driven fundamentally by the selfish desire of
our genes to reproduce, and as human beings socially and
economically, perhaps also partially as a consequence of that
very genetic hard wiring, we were compelled always to act in our
own self-interest, even at the expense of others. Surely, such a
scientific double whammy rendered any concept of
socialism, of collectivism, of a society based on co-operation
and solidarity, a mere pipe-dream?
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Fortunately, as almost always proves to
be the case, these same capitalist ideologists are guilty
of both hopeful opportunism and bad science. As one of
Richard Dawkinss close co-thinkers, Matt Ridley,
points out in his 1997 book The Origins of Virtue,
far from the real evidence indicating such a bleak
picture for biology and humanity, all the best evidence
from both recent evolutionary studies and the further
development of games theory into more
lifelike and complex scenarios seems to show
that co-operation, reciprocation and collectivism are at
least as much a part of our social and biological make-up
as selfishness, and may be even more critical to our
development as a species than had previously been
thought. |
What
evidence is there then, co-operation, reciprocation and
collective solidarity are at least as much a part of our social
and biological make-up as self-centredness and individual ego?
Hawks,
Doves and Tit-for-tat
Ridley
points out that when Prisoners Dilemma type games are
played repeatedly between partners or multiple players where one
player can remember whether another is trustworthy or defects
against him, then an entirely different set of results begin to
show up.
One
of the first to demonstrate this was a biologist in the 70s
called John Maynard Smith. He was the first to see the connection
between games theory and what he called evolutionary stable
strategies. Although natural is wholly natural,
non-teleological process, selection for competitive advantage in
a population could be seen as rationally optimum from the
point of view of the organism in relation to its
fitness in its particular environment. If self-interest was
always rational then why did animals in the wild not turn upon
one another at every opportunity?
He
set up a game called Hawks and Doves, which was played out as a
mathematical model using computers. A Hawk always Took
Everything, if we can refer back to the version of
Prisoners Dilemma in the Goldenballs game show. A
Dove always Shared. Not surprisingly, Doves did fairly well in
game scenarios against other Doves, Hawks tended to drive each
other to extinction, but Hawks always profited when they came up
against Doves.
No
evolutionary stable strategy there. But Maynard Smiths
insight and genius was to devise a third category of game player
- Retaliator. Retaliator was a Dove that turned into a Hawk when
it met one. This proved to be an enormously successful strategy.
Whenever the game was played Retaliator soon became the
species to dominate the game space.
A
number of years later a political scientist named Robert Axelrod
who, like ourselves, was interested in the natural logic of
co-operation, confirmed and developed these findings. He set up a
Prisoners Dilemma tournament on computer and invited people
to submit programs (strategies). Surprisingly the eight best
(most successful, most evolutionarily stable) programs were all,
first and foremost, co-operators. None of them initiated
Hawk-like behaviour, and the most successful was a program
designed by a man called Anatol Rappaport, a concert pianist with
an interest in the politics of nuclear confrontation. His
program, Tit-for-tat, was astoundingly simple.
It
began by co-operating, but it had a memory. It would then simply
do whatever the other program did last time. If the other guy
Shared, fine. If he Took Everything, Tit-for-tat would retaliate
next time. If, on the third occasion the other program moved back
to sharing, Tit-for-tat would return to co-operating behaviour
also.
Axelrod explained the success of the program thus:
What
accounts for Tit-for-tats robust success is its combination
of being nice, retaliatory, forgiving and clear. Its niceness
prevents it from getting into unnecessary trouble. Its
retaliation discourages the other side from persisting whenever
defection is tried. Its forgiveness helps restore mutual
co-operation. And its clarity makes it intelligible to the other
player, thereby eliciting long term co-operation.
Finally,
by moving from a two-prisoner, two-cell reductive scenario to a
more complex and - dare I say it - dialectical scenario, with
multiple players with memories and the ability to adopt and
develop strategies, Games theory had begun to show results a bit
more like how the mass of humanity act in everyday life (or,
perhaps we should say, would probably act if human relations were
not distorted by social and cultural power of capitalism).
The
race was now on to find examples in biology of co-operation, both
between individuals of species, and in the cellular aggregates
that constitute organisms themselves.
Bloodsuckers
and biochemistry
In
1983 the biologist Gerald Wilkinson detailed an example of
co-operation in biology that mirrored almost exactly
Rappaports Tit-for-tat program. He had studied vampire bats
in Costa Rica. The bats main source of food is blood sipped
from small cuts in large animals at night. Occasionally bats
will, of course, go without a blood meal, but after sixty hours
without blood the bat is in danger of starving to death.
Wilkinson discovered the Costa Rican bats had devised
a way around this problem. Fortunately, when a meal is found the
lucky bat can usually drink more than it immediately requires.
This allows it to donate the surplus to another hungry bat by
regurgitating the extra blood mouth-to-mouth. The bats tend to
roost in the same tree hollows over a number of years and seemed
to have developed the ability to recognise and memorise each
others generosity to one and other. A bat that has received blood
in the past will, in turn, donate to its benefactor. A greedy bat
that refuses blood will be refused blood in turn. And this is not
simply bats looking after their own genetic heritage by looking
after their kin most of the bats studied were not directly
or indirectly related. Here was something perfectly explicable in
terms of Game theory and Dawkins selfish gene
approach, but runs counter to the simplistic ideological
conclusion of right wingers who have distorted these ideas and
claim that survival of the fittest necessarily means
selfish behaviours predominate in the natural world or are
dominant.
Ridley
terms this phenomenon reciprocity, and details interesting
examples amongst primates, sea-going mammals and others (the
co-operation of bees and ants can mostly be explained by kin
selection. Drone bees strive to pass on their genes through the
genes of a near relative, the Queen.) He even cites the instances
of cleaning stations at coral reefs; specific spots
where larger fish go knowing they can be cleaned of parasites by
smaller fish and shrimps, and those smaller creatures know in
turn that, at that spot, for that time, they will not be eaten by
the larger fish.
In
fact, co-operation, rather than self-interest seems to permeate
the world of biology, even at the level of the organism or
individual cell. Genes team up to form chromosomes,
he tells us. Chromosomes team up to form genomes; genomes
team up to form cells; cells team up to form complex cells;
complex cells team up to form bodies...
And,
of course, bodies team up to form schools, flocks, herds, clans,
tribes and societies.
Eternal
human nature or pre-dispositions to learn?
In
the previous chapter I attempted to begin to deconstruct the
lefts one sided relationship with the ages old nature
versus nurture debate. I also began to stake out my
argument that Marxists should be vary too of their learnt
tendency to bend the stick in the relationship
between genetics the biological given and what we
assimilate through the environment and culture. We are clearly
not simply blank pages upon which great social experiments can be
writ (or anything else for that matter). We are creatures with a
certain genetic heritage, drives and instincts. It is important,
however, to understand what that means. Ridley, in the
introduction to his book, sums it up:
Instincts,
in a species like the human one, are not immutable genetic
programs; they are predispositions to learn. And to believe that
human beings have instincts is no more determinist than to
believe they are products of their upbringings.
Humans
have the innate capability both to be incredibly selfish and
heroically altruistic. The potentiality for co-operation and self
interest are hardwired into us, it would seem, but they are only
potentials. Co-operation, or self-interest, the Hawk or the Dove,
can only be realised in our interaction with a real, living
complex society.
In this sense Marx began the completion of Darwin, 150 years
ahead of schedule, when he said that conditions determine
consciousness but only if we understand
conditions to mean both our environmental and social
conditions, and the historic evolutionary conditions over
species deep time that have selected our innate
predispositions.
The overwhelming good news from the modern Darwinian
understanding of Game Theory or the Prisoners Dilemma is
this: There is nothing in biology or economics which precludes a
different, better and more harmonious way of organising society.
There is nothing in our nature which would doom a genuine
socialist project before it even began. Whatever other immediate
problems may face us in the struggle to build a new society, we
can rest assured that as a matter of fact we are not
simply dreamers, wasting our time.
As
a Marxist I have always believed one can be an optimist and a
realist about the human race at the same time. It was a human
brain that revealed the evolutionary processes behind the
creation of species, a human brain that began the development of
scientific socialism, and a human brain that gave us
Beethovens Ninth symphony. Similarly, human brains, bounded
by capitalism and class society and with their worst instincts
and prejudices let rip, engineered the Holocaust and Hiroshima.
Coming full circle, and on a more mundane level, it was a human
brain that gave us the emotionally manipulative Big Brother and
the aforesaid Goldenballs.
But
the message from science is plain: the game is on, and the Hawks
neednt win.
The
choice is ours.
Steve
Arnott
Recommended
reading to accompany this chapter
The
Origin of Virtue Matt Ridley
On
Liberty John Stuart Mill
The
Anatomy of Human Destructiveness Erich Fromm
Parts
of this article first appeared in a slightly different form in
Frontline magazine